Local climate changes

Climate change is already having visible effects on the world. The earth is warming, rainfall patterns are changing, and sea levels are rising. These changes can increase the risk of heatwaves, floods, droughts, and fires. We know that greenhouse gases, aerosol emissions and land use affect our climate. Overall, human activity is warming our planet.

Climate change can affect our climate system in lots of different ways: 

The level of climate change we will see depends on how quickly we cut emissions of dangerous greenhouse gases. Even if we were to stop all emissions today, we would not prevent some changes. However, the sooner we cut emissions, the smaller the changes will be. In a recent report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) showed the difference between 1.5°C and 2°C of global warming. But unless we reduce emissions rapidly, the world is likely to exceed 2°C of warming. By the end of this century, warming could potentially reach 4°C, possibly more.

If our climate continues to change, many parts of the world will become more challenging places to live. People may have to leave their homes. Climate is just one of many factors that influences human migration, but it will play an increasing role in the future. 

The effects of climate change are real, and they are already happening.

Climate Change and your local area

To some, warming weather may not seem like such a big deal. But even the smallest incremental changes in climate can have far-reaching effects. Temperatures above 30C for two or more days can trigger a public-health warning. In the 1990s, this happened about once every four years for locations in the South. By the 2070s, projections suggest it could be as frequently as four times per year - 16 times more often, if we do not curb our emissions.

This summer the south west have expereince periods of extended dry weather with high temperatures and limited rainfall. 'False Autumn' is one effect of these prolonged dry periods. This is where trees prematurely change colour and shed leaves due to stress from drought or prolonged heatwaves.This current phenomenon can harm trees and disrupt wildlife habitats, making our ecosystems vulnerable to further damage (wilfires). You may see these effects occur more frequently on local tress in your community with the prolonged dry periods and little rain, this is an effect of climate change.

Summer rain is likely to become less frequent but could be heavier when it does occur. Without regular rainfall, the ground has a harder time absorbing water when it finally does come, leading to a greater risk of flash flooding.
Floods will likely become a staple of warming winters as well. Steady rain, which is currently a feature of winter months, will probably continue, and total rainfall is expected to increase. When the ground is already saturated, waterways tend to rise. Bridges and sewers designed for historical rainfall levels may come increasingly under pressure. Warming temperatures could also mean cold spells become less frequent. Temperatures below freezing during the day and areas with considerable amounts of snow on the ground may be limited to parts of Scotland by the end of the century if emissions continue to rise.

Cheltenham, like other urban areas, may experience an enhance urban heat island effect, where temperature are higher in the town than surrounding rural areas. This could be exacerbated by climate change, leading to more intense and localised heat waves during the summer months. 

These warming stripes, created by Professor Ed Hawkins (University of Reading), show the temperature change in Cheltenham, from 1884 to 2023. Each stripe represents the average temperature for a single year, relative to the average temperature over the period as a whole. Shades of blue indicate cooler-than-average years, while red shows years that were hotter than average. The stark band of deep red stripes on the right-hand side of the graphic show the rapid heating in recent decades.

Warming stripes, created by Professor Ed Hawkins (University of Reading), show the temperature change in Cheltenham, from 1884 to 2023. Each stripe represents the average temperature for a single year, relative to the average temperature over the period as a whole. Shades of blue indicate cooler-than-average years, while red shows years that were hotter than average. A stark band of deep red stripes on the right-hand side of the graphic show the rapid heating in recent decades.

Cheltenham's weather is primarily influenced by its location in the UK, which experiences changeable weather due to the interaction of warm, tropical air and cold, polar air. The warm North Atlantic Drift also plays a significant role, bringing relatively mild temperatures to the region. Additionally, Cheltenham, as an urban area experiences the 'urban heat island effect,' leading to slightly higher temperatures compared to surrounding rural areas. 

To break this down further:

  • The annual average temperature range is relatively large due to the relative distance of the Midlands from the sea. Sharp winter frosts are common and very hot days may also occur in summer. Winter mean daily minimum temperatures are between 0°C and 2°C, whilst summer mean daily maximum temperatures can reach above 21°C in many areas.
  • Large-scale frost hollows may occur within river valleys in the western parts of the Midlands in winter. 
  • Rates of rainfall across the Midlands are variable. Rainfall rates are highest at high altitude close to the Welsh border, and parts of the Peak District receive more than 1000 mm per year. The region is drier in the lee of the mountains (South and East Midlands as low as 600 mm per year).
  • Snow across the Midlands is variable, from about 5 days of lying snow per year in the lower Severn valley to over 20 days in upland areas.

You can also dive deeper into cheltenham's average climate and weather through the Met Office.